2052 RANDERS PDF

Shelves: the-problem-of-civilization , non-fiction , abandoned , appleton-public-library , school-reading In my Independent Study on the works and thought of Derrick Jensen last year, we imagined the utility of an "Intergovernmental Panel on Global Collapse," a group that could use models and environmental and economic data to form a set of rough constraints and scenarios about the path industrial civilization could take. Collapse theorists like Aric McBay and John Michael Greer offer their near-certain prognosis that "collapse" is either with us now or on the near horizon. However, for lack of data In my Independent Study on the works and thought of Derrick Jensen last year, we imagined the utility of an "Intergovernmental Panel on Global Collapse," a group that could use models and environmental and economic data to form a set of rough constraints and scenarios about the path industrial civilization could take. However, for lack of data and computational power to predict the future, such analysts end up falling a bit flat because their scenarios and arguments differ only in the personality of the teller - Greer has little evidence to support his claim that collapse is gradual, and McBay and the other catastrophists find it difficult to support their interpretation that there will be a more-or-less datable collapse in the future. They struggle to pin down the specific nature of collapse - will it be a collapse of the American Empire, of the global financial market, of the industrial food distribution system, of fossil fuel extraction as an enterprise? Randers seemed to offer the next best thing to a serious, well funded and interdisciplinary effort to examine this most important of all possible questions.

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Shelves: the-problem-of-civilization , non-fiction , abandoned , appleton-public-library , school-reading In my Independent Study on the works and thought of Derrick Jensen last year, we imagined the utility of an "Intergovernmental Panel on Global Collapse," a group that could use models and environmental and economic data to form a set of rough constraints and scenarios about the path industrial civilization could take.

Collapse theorists like Aric McBay and John Michael Greer offer their near-certain prognosis that "collapse" is either with us now or on the near horizon. However, for lack of data In my Independent Study on the works and thought of Derrick Jensen last year, we imagined the utility of an "Intergovernmental Panel on Global Collapse," a group that could use models and environmental and economic data to form a set of rough constraints and scenarios about the path industrial civilization could take.

However, for lack of data and computational power to predict the future, such analysts end up falling a bit flat because their scenarios and arguments differ only in the personality of the teller - Greer has little evidence to support his claim that collapse is gradual, and McBay and the other catastrophists find it difficult to support their interpretation that there will be a more-or-less datable collapse in the future.

They struggle to pin down the specific nature of collapse - will it be a collapse of the American Empire, of the global financial market, of the industrial food distribution system, of fossil fuel extraction as an enterprise?

Randers seemed to offer the next best thing to a serious, well funded and interdisciplinary effort to examine this most important of all possible questions.

The disappointing truth is that his model apparently writes out the possibility of unforeseen state shifts like sudden catastrophic collapses in ecosystem service delivery, financial markets, nuclear war, or the discovery of abundant new gas reserves some of which are more likely than others. The nature of modeling is to take existing trends and extend them into the future; thresholds and deep feedbacks can only be elucidated by serious research.

Randers further disappoints by extending his forecast only to as he points out, all the interesting and catastrophic things are likely to happen in the second half of the century and beyond, when climate change feedbacks kick into gear.

Nothing new or interesting or particularly compelling. He says that at that time, he kept the realization a secret: some more optimistic people needed the hope to keep doing good work that he wanted them to do, so he felt it would be ill-advised to spread his bad news.

However, now he apparently sees more value in coming to terms with our place in the vast machinations of history. This book represents that coming-to-terms, moving beyond the cloying and obnoxious need most authors of such books have to craft a narrative that compels readers to vague, likely short-lived, and ultimately ineffective action.

In contrast, his advice at the end of the book is actually quite refreshing and seems rather helpful. Randers instead offers pragmatic advice: learn to accept the tragedy, and ride it out as best you can.

He suggests that we base happiness on non-monetary satisfaction, learn to enjoy video games and movies, avoid teaching children to enjoy wilderness, and move someplace with a reasonably proactive government and away from the worst projected impacts of climate change.

Overall, he suggests learning to like the way the world will be in 40 years in advance, to save you the trouble of adjusting when that future comes. It is based on a model similar to that used by the Limits To Growth forecasters of which Jorgen Randers is one , but updated to include current data and focused on what the author assesses to be the most likely scenario over the next forty years.

What is often not well understood about LTG is that it was a scenario analysis rather than a forecast; the idea was to analyse the impact of various social behaviours and This book took me a while to read, because it was dense with information. What is often not well understood about LTG is that it was a scenario analysis rather than a forecast; the idea was to analyse the impact of various social behaviours and decisions to determine alternative futures, rather than definitively map out what would happen.

As has been documented in a CSIRO paper, the LTG model has actually mapped fairly well what would happen in the scenario which had technological input and improvements, but was still based on growth, and led to eventual collapse. Randers was driven to develop the model by a curiosity and anxiety about the future, which he wanted to address in the most realistic way he could devise. Of course it is not possible to be definitive about the future, but, having observed global behaviour and trends for forty years, he was well placed to make educated guesses, with assistance from various experts in areas where he needed more guidance.

He then he tested the model for self consistency, and consistency with other more narrowly focused outside forecasting models, to assess its credibility.

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2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

And what does our future look like? To do this, he asked dozens of experts to weigh in with their best predictions on how our economies, energy supplies, natural resources, climate, food, fisheries, political divisions, cities, psyches, and more will evolve in the coming decades. The good news: we will see impressive advances in resource efficiency, and an increasing focus on human well-being rather than on per capita income growth. But this change might not come as we expect.

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2052 RANDERS PDF

But a significant minority will come from rural to urban migration and urban area reclassification. Compare this with a weekend hobby farm, with honeybees, a rabbit, and an apple tree, where most resources have to be bought from elsewhere. Most serious environmental writers who acknowledge the hopelessness of the situation either conclude that we should fight anyway, because trying is the only moral option Deep Green Resistance: CO 2 emissions from energy consumption will peak in However, it is more difficult to predict how robotic weapons will affect warfare and the structure of society. And having outlined 12 scenarios for the world running from to in his first book, he now feels there is enough information to make more concrete forecasts.

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