EXUBERANCIA IRRACIONAL SHILLER PDF

This was summed up for me in the last chapter when he listed things that could go wrong in the future. He listed every conceivable scenario in the world. While I agree that you need to consider all possibilities and investing is about probabilities, it is in I really battled to get into this book. While I agree that you need to consider all possibilities and investing is about probabilities, it is in my opinion very easy to write a book saying all these things could go wrong and then listing everything that could go wrong.

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This was summed up for me in the last chapter when he listed things that could go wrong in the future. He listed every conceivable scenario in the world. While I agree that you need to consider all possibilities and investing is about probabilities, it is in I really battled to get into this book.

While I agree that you need to consider all possibilities and investing is about probabilities, it is in my opinion very easy to write a book saying all these things could go wrong and then listing everything that could go wrong. Robert Shiller is a very smart man but I really battled to enjoy this book. Not recommended. Shiller starts out with three chapters that present statistics showing that stocks and real estate are not investments that people can count on to earn a good long-run return.

He shows that if people got into the market at the wrong time they could end up having to wait for a long time before the value of stocks returned to the price that people paid for the stocks. He shows similar statistics for real estate. In the This is a book that needs to be reread in order for the points to absorbed. In the chapter on bonds he talks about how bonds do not do a good job of forecasting future inflation rates. In Chapter Four and Five he presents his view of how booms get going and how they are amplified.

It took me a few readings to understand his main point. I believe his main point is to show that sometimes the price of stocks and the price of real estate go up for no good reasons. In Chapter Four he identifies precipitating factors that he argues are not connected to fundamentals. They are factors that should not drive prices upward. In Chapter Five he talks about how booms are like Ponzi schemes--and there is sometimes fraud and sometimes just people telling a story that is not supported by any evidence.

Shiller presents detailed examples that are designed to show that when prices fall rapidly they do so for reasons not connected to anything that would justify the price declines. Instead a decline might be followed by a brief recovery, a time of stability, and then further decreases in the price. I think Shiller argues this because he wants to demonstrate that prices change for no good reasons--either in an upward or downward direction.

Shiller argues that every time there are booms in stock prices that someone will talk about their being a New Era that justifies the rise in stock prices. One explanation for the boom would be that there really was a New Era and as people tried to take the consequences of the New Era into account they would bid up prices too high.

Once they realized what was going on then stock prices would fall. Shiller rejects this argument. He argues that in almost all the cases stock prices first go up and then after the fact people start to put stories together to justify the rise in stock prices. Below is what I prepared for class to discuss this: One point that comes up again and again the book is that investing in stocks and real estate is not a strategy that can be counted on to generate high returns.

Even if we accept this claim we might argue that at least if put money into the stock market that we can count on getting a return that exceeds the return on bonds. In addition to these two claims, the last chapter in the book: Speculative Volatility in a Free Society, is of great importance It is important for three reasons. Who is Shiller Arguing With and What is the Basis of the Argument We have talked about efficient markets and in Chapter Eleven Shiller explicitly introduces the theory of efficient markets.

Economists who believe in the theory of efficient markets argue that when market prices go up or down we should be able to point to fundamental factors that can account for the change in the price. The fundamental factors are connected to the current and future cash flows. While economists believe that future prices of financial and real assets are unpredictable, they believe that after the fact we can explain the changes in prices: they must have changed because something that mattered in the world around us.

It is that claim that that Shiller is attempting to show is false. Here are some examples: 1 From the very beginning Shiller is interested in showing how changes in stock prices, real estate prices, and bond prices cannot be accounted for by changes in fundamentals.

I view this as clearing the decks. If we think fundamentals explain most of the changes in stock prices then there is no need for any other explanations. Shiller in the chapter on efficient markets focuses on examples of where assets were mispriced and remained mispriced for a long period of time.

In two critical chapters, Chapters Four and Five, Shiller offers an explanation of how we can see volatility in prices without there being anything having to do with fundamentals. I missed this the first few times reading the chapter. But on p. A Ponzi scheme is based upon fraud. He is arguing that while there is no fraud going on that the same mentality and dynamic is occurring when we have amplifying factors that push stock prices up.

In addition Shiller makes two other points. First: there is a gap between the collapse and any financial crisis. Some other points that arose during class today: 1 People believe things that are not supported by evidence in particular they believe that stock prices and land prices will rebound, but there is no basis for such a belief. Investors are said to be euphoric or frenzied.

Financial booms and crashes are, for most of us, not emotion-laden events. Those emotions he argues play a key role in how people behave. I believe Shiller is rejecting that people lose control of themselves and act like some out of control mob. If markets are efficient then stock prices of firms in the same industry, even if they are located in different regions, should have great volatility then the stock prices of firms in different industries who are located in the same region.

However, if some of the arguments made in Chapter Ten Herd Behavior and Epidemics are correct then we would expect the exact opposite. Be able to explain why the different theories have different predictions and be able to explain what results Shiller finds.

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EXUBERANCIA IRRACIONAL

This was summed up for me in the last chapter when he listed things that could go wrong in the future. He listed every conceivable scenario in the world. While I agree that you need to consider all possibilities and investing is about probabilities, it is in I really battled to get into this book. While I agree that you need to consider all possibilities and investing is about probabilities, it is in my opinion very easy to write a book saying all these things could go wrong and then listing everything that could go wrong.

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Exuberancia irracional

Overview[ edit ] Published at the height of the dot-com boom , the text put forth several arguments demonstrating how the stock markets were overvalued at the time. The second edition of Irrational Exuberance was published in and was updated to cover the housing bubble. Shiller wrote that the real estate bubble might soon burst, and he supported his claim by showing that median home prices were six to nine times greater than median income in some areas of the country. Housing prices peaked in and the housing bubble burst in and , an event partially responsible for the Worldwide recession of The third edition of Irrational Exuberance was published in and included new material on bonds.

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